Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Myles StrawBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Franco homered to right (411 feet).8–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 9Laureano scored, Bo Naylor to second on wild pitch by Stephenson.8–8
- 9Laureano scored on Stephenson wild pitch, Bo Naylor to second on wild pitch by Stephenson.8–8
- 9Calhoun scored, Laureano to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.7–8
- 9Calhoun scored on Fairbanks wild pitch, Laureano to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.7–8
- 9Ramírez scored, Laureano to second, Calhoun to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.6–8
- 9Ramírez scored on Fairbanks wild pitch, Laureano to second on wild pitch by Fairbanks, Calhoun to third on wild pitch by Fairbanks.6–8
- 8Straw homered to left center (380 feet).5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Margot grounded into fielder's choice to second, B. Lowe scored, Paredes out at second, Arozarena to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bethancourt scored, Franco scored, B. Lowe to second on fielding error by second baseman Giménez.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Paredes homered to left (365 feet), Arozarena scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Giménez singled to center, Straw scored, Kwan to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Straw singled to right, Rocchio scored, Bo Naylor to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Kwan tripled to center, Rocchio scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- CLE +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 38–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.