Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Belt singled to right, Merrifield scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Merrifield doubled to center, Biggio scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Calhoun grounded out to second, Rocchio scored, Ramírez to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Rocchio doubled to right, Tena scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Rocchio doubled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Tena to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Tena singled to center, Laureano scored, Bo Naylor to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Espinal singled to left, Jansen scored, Lukes to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −31 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3035–27 | Road vs home | 30–2819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.