Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho tripled to right, Kirk scored.13–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play13–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 312–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 212–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking12–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–1
- 7Schneider singled to left, Belt scored.12–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 211–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 5Chapman singled to right, Belt scored, Schneider to third.11–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 210–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 5Springer hit sacrifice fly to left, DeJong scored.10–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 39–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 5Schneider hit by pitch, Kiermaier scored, Belt to second, DeJong to third.9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 5Merrifield grounded out to shortstop, Kirk scored, DeJong to second, Kiermaier to third.8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Kiermaier singled to center, Biggio scored, Kirk to second.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Casas homered to right center (414 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Schneider homered to left center (425 feet), Merrifield scored.6–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +10 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brennan Bernardino: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3032–26 | Road vs home | 30–2514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.