Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hays doubled to left, Mountcastle scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 9Frazier hit sacrifice fly to left, Cowser scored, Mountcastle to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8McKenna sacrificed, Hays scored on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Urías safe at third on error.4–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Kiermaier scored, Merrifield to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Rutschman singled to left, Frazier scored, Urías to second, Hays thrown out at home.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored, Frazier to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | BAL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–21 | Road vs home | 30–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 7–2 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.