New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Judge scored, Rizzo scored and Stanton scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 35–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Higashioka homered to left (428 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Santander grounded out to first, Rutschman scored, Henderson to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Bader scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Judge homered to center (442 feet), Higashioka scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Urías reached on infield single to shortstop, Frazier scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Mountcastle homered to right (374 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Stanton homered to left (427 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -121
- NYY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 31–205th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 5–6 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.