New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Harrison BaderBatting3-4
- Carlos RodonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Volpe singled to right, Bader scored, Volpe to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to right, Bader scored, Volpe to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Peraza grounded into fielder's choice to third, LeMahieu scored, Volpe to second, Bader to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -115
- NYM +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 31–2410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.