New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil doubled to right, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Rortvedt grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bader scored, Volpe out at second, Kiner-Falefa to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 7Stanton hit sacrifice fly to right, Volpe scored, Higashioka to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Volpe doubled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7McNeil singled to center, Lindor scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Vogelbach homered to right center (406 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Alonso homered to center (431 feet).5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Alonso homered to left (372 feet), Lindor scored and McNeil scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Alonso singled to left, Nimmo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -116
- NYM +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 31–2310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.