New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-4
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santander homered to right center (425 feet).0–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- NYY +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −18 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 30–206th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 5–5 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.