New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bader hit sacrifice fly to center, Stanton scored.3–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 4O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 4Henderson doubled to right, Rutschman scored.2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Bauers doubled to right, Bader scored, Higashioka to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 3Bauers homered to center (414 feet).1–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 1Rutschman singled to center, Westburg scored.0–7
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 1Frazier homered to right (395 feet), O'Hearn scored and Hays scored.0–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1O'Hearn doubled to left, Henderson scored and Santander scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Santander doubled to right, Rutschman scored, Henderson to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Fair odds
- BAL -122
- NYY +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +4 | NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +60 Elo | BAL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 31–216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 6–6 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.