Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-3
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Springer scored, Varsho safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Jansen to second, Chapman to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Jansen hit by pitch, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman to second, Springer to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Chapman hit by pitch, Belt scored, Springer to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Rutschman reached on infield single to second, McCann scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Springer singled to center, Belt scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +8 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–20 | Road vs home | 29–2311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 7–1 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.