Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrifield homered to left (354 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Kiermaier grounded into fielder's choice to second, Varsho scored, Kirk out at second.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Santander scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Henderson homered to right center (387 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Mountcastle doubled to right, O'Hearn scored and Santander scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–20 | Road vs home | 29–218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 5–1 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.