Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKenna singled to left, Henderson scored and Westburg scored.13–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 8Santander homered to right (403 feet), Mateo scored, Rutschman scored and Mountcastle scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 311–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 7Henderson singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Hays scored, Henderson to second.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Mountcastle doubled to left, Mateo scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Henderson homered to right (335 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 3Belt homered to left center (395 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2Jansen homered to left center (405 feet), Chapman scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Rutschman singled to center, Urías scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Henderson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mountcastle scored, Santander out at second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −8 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +11 Elo | BAL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–20 | Road vs home | 29–228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.