Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman homered to center (394 feet).7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Chang homered to center (411 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Springer scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Varsho homered to right (413 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Springer doubled to left, Varsho scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Duran homered to left center (361 feet), Urías scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Schneider homered to left center (377 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (387 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Merrifield homered to left (352 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −5 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: James Paxton: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +25 Elo | BOS 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 30–239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–7 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.