Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías singled to left, Duvall scored, McGuire to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Kiermaier singled to left, Springer scored, Espinal to second, Kirk to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Belt singled to left, Schneider scored, Merrifield to second, DeJong to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Devers homered to right center (430 feet), Yoshida scored and Turner scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Varsho singled to left, Kirk scored, Chapman to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Kirk doubled to center, Springer scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Belt homered to left center (417 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: John Schreiber: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3031–26 | Road vs home | 30–2411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–7 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.