Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting3-4
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Laureano doubled to left, Gonzalez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 47%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- TOR +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +15 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–26 | Road vs home | 29–2718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.