Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Oscar GonzalezBatting3-4
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6McCormick homered to center (366 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2McCormick homered to left (360 feet), J. Abreu scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–0
- 2Arias doubled to left, Rocchio scored and Gonzalez scored, Bo Naylor to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- CLE +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −9 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 30–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.