Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (367 feet).4–17
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–17
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–17
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–17
- 8Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, McCormick scored, Dubón out at second, Meyers to third.3–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–17
- 8Franco homered to left (346 feet).3–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–16
- 7Alvarez homered to right center (386 feet).2–16
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–16
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–16
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–16
- 7Bregman homered to left (360 feet), Peña scored.2–15
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–15
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–15
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–15
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–15
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–15
- 7Altuve homered to left (378 feet), Meyers scored.2–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 7Paredes homered to left (380 feet), Arozarena scored.2–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 10–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 6J. Abreu homered to right (367 feet), Bregman scored and Alvarez scored.0–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Diaz doubled to center, McCormick scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5McCormick tripled to left, Alvarez scored and J. Abreu scored.0–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −3 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 27–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.