Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Siri scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4J. Abreu homered to left (379 feet), Alvarez scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Peña grounded out to third, Altuve scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1B. Lowe homered to right (383 feet), Franco scored and Arozarena scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 46%
- Fair odds
- HOU -105
- TB +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −18 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 27–2315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.