Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-4
- Brandon BielakPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6B. Lowe homered to right (379 feet), Franco scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Bregman grounded out to shortstop, Peña scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Tucker doubled to left, Altuve scored, Peña to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4B. Lowe singled to left, Pinto scored, Díaz to third.6–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Díaz singled to left, Siri scored, Pinto to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1J. Lowe doubled to right, Franco scored, Raley scored and B. Lowe scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Díaz scored, Raley safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, B. Lowe to second, Franco to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 28–2415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.