Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting3-4
- Noah SyndergaardPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kwan hit sacrifice fly to right, Brennan scored, Arias to third.3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Meyers scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Meyers singled to center, Diaz scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Altuve scored on Kelly wild pitch, Peña to third on wild pitch by Kelly.2–5
- 7Altuve scored on Kelly wild pitch, Peña to third on wild pitch by Kelly.2–5
- 6Alvarez homered to right (370 feet), Tucker scored and Bregman scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Tucker singled to left, Altuve scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Arias scored, Bo Naylor to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Bo Naylor doubled to right, Bell scored, Arias to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -121
- CLE +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −31 | +11 | CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +77 Elo | HOU 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.38th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 28–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.