Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting0-3
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Tucker singled to center, Altuve scored and Peña scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- CLE +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 29–2517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.