Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Andres GimenezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Giménez homered to right (373 feet), Kwan scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Benintendi walked, Colás scored, Anderson to second, Andrus to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 42–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Andrus doubled to left, Thompson scored, Colás to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Straw scored on Clevinger wild pitch, Kwan to third on wild pitch by Clevinger.0–2
- 2Straw scored on Clevinger wild pitch, Kwan to third on wild pitch by Clevinger.0–2
- 1Ramírez singled to center, Giménez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -121
- CHW +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–38 | Road vs home | 28–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 6–4 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.