Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brennan singled to center, Calhoun scored and Gonzalez scored, Rocchio to second, Rocchio safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Robert Jr..7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Remillard singled to left, Grandal scored and Andrus scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Calhoun singled to right, Tena scored, Gonzalez to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Ramírez doubled to right, Giménez scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Andrus homered to left (390 feet), Colás scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Colás homered to center (392 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Vaughn homered to left (377 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Robert Jr. homered to left center (415 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -120
- CHW +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −31 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–39 | Road vs home | 29–2413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 6–5 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.