Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Cavan BiggioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Springer singled to left, Belt scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Bo Naylor singled to right, Rocchio scored, Straw to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Biggio homered to center (415 feet), Varsho scored.2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −33 | +6 | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 1.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +23 Elo | CLE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 4th of 3033–26 | Road vs home | 29–2618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.