Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andrus singled to center, Colás scored and Vaughn scored, Remillard to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Benintendi scored, Remillard safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rocchio, Colás to second, Vaughn to third.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 5Straw reached on infield single to shortstop, Rocchio scored on throwing error by shortstop Andrus.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Arias homered to center (414 feet), Calhoun scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–2
- 1Jiménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Robert Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Robert Jr. tripled to center, Andrus scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Fair odds
- CLE -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +50 Elo | CLE 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 3021–39 | Road vs home | 29–2516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 7–5 CLE in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.