Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Kole CalhounBatting2-3
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 1Springer homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 13 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Fair odds
- CLE -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–27 | Road vs home | 30–2718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.