St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jalen BeeksPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Franco homered to right center (448 feet).6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Nootbaar homered to right center (403 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Siri homered to left (362 feet).5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Goldschmidt singled to right, Carlson scored and Edman scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Walker singled to right, Arenado scored, Contreras to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Arenado singled to left, Nootbaar scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Siri homered to center (429 feet), Raley scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Burleson grounded out to first, Gorman scored, Walker to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Jalen Beeks: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 38–191st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.