Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torres stole home, Allen stole second.2–7
- 7Torres stole home, Allen stole second.2–7
- 7Stanton singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Torres to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Stanton homered to right center (408 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Torres scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Volpe homered to right (345 feet), Bader scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Franco homered to right (431 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 47%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 32–2614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 6–3 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.