Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4J. Lowe homered to center (420 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Paredes homered to left (374 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Franco homered to right (391 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Bauers homered to center (401 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (380 feet), Díaz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +17 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +5 Elo | TB 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 32–249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–3 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.