Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9LeMahieu reached on infield single to third, Torres scored, Rizzo to second, LeMahieu to second, Rizzo safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Paredes.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 9Torres doubled to left, Bader scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5B. Lowe singled to right, Franco scored, Arozarena to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Arozarena homered to left (415 feet), H. Ramírez scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Díaz homered to right center (367 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Margot hit a ground rule double, Paredes scored, B. Lowe to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 46%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 32–2510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–3 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.