Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7H. Ramírez singled to right, Paredes scored, J. Lowe to third.8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Díaz singled to center, Siri scored, Bethancourt to second.7–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Bethancourt singled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Siri to third.6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Siri singled to center, J. Lowe scored, H. Ramírez to third.5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Siri homered to left center, H. Ramírez scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Paredes doubled to left, Arozarena scored on error and B. Lowe scored, Paredes safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Báez.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -105
- DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +41 Elo | TB 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 22–3027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.