Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Davis walked, Joe scored, McCutchen to second, Reynolds to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 46–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Rogers homered to left center (406 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Short doubled to left, Vierling scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5McCutchen singled to right, Williams scored, Reynolds to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Short singled to left, Vierling scored and Báez scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Báez singled to left, Carpenter scored, Vierling to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Hayes hit sacrifice fly to right, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Greene homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −17 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 26–2723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.