Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-2
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4
- Zack ThompsonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Doyle scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 58%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +54 Elo | STL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–37 | Road vs home | 24–3126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.