Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wallner homered to center (431 feet), Kepler scored and Farmer scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 3Burleson homered to right (393 feet), Arenado scored and Contreras scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Nootbaar homered to right center (411 feet), Edman scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Walker homered to left center (397 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2O'Neill homered to left center (431 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 19th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 22–2926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.