Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman reached on infield single to third, Morel scored, Mastrobuoni to second.10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 8Knizner homered to left (409 feet), Burleson scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 7Gomes doubled to left, Morel scored and Swanson scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Tauchman homered to center (401 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Knizner homered to left (392 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hoerner scored, Bellinger out at second.6–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Mastrobuoni reached on infield single to second, Morel scored, Gomes to second.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Gomes singled to left, Swanson scored, Morel to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Morel hit a ground rule double, Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored, Swanson to third.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- CHC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.4 – 5.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +1 Elo | STL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 21–2525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.