Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Garcia doubled to left, Lopez scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Wallner homered to right (445 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Fermin homered to left center (420 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.9 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +18 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 17–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 9–3 KC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.