Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Witt Jr. homered to left center (414 feet), Isbel scored, Lopez scored and Garcia scored.5–8
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 35–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 10Farmer singled to center, Wallner scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Polanco doubled to right, Buxton scored and Taylor scored, Solano to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Witt Jr. singled to center, Waters scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Melendez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Castro stole home, Jeffers stole second.2–1
- 4Castro stole home, Jeffers stole second.2–1
- 4Jeffers singled to center, Kepler scored, Castro to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +64 Elo | MIN 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 15–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 9–1 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.