Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castro singled to right, Buxton scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 36–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 8Vázquez grounded out to shortstop, Polanco scored.6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Witt Jr. tripled to right, Garcia scored.5–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 7Garcia singled to right, Waters scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Waters tripled to center, Isbel scored.5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Perez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 6Vázquez singled to center, Buxton scored, Wallner to second.5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 6Kepler homered to center (424 feet).4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4Buxton doubled to left, Kepler scored and Kirilloff scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Fair odds
- MIN -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +85 Elo | MIN 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 16–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 9–2 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.