Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mancini singled to left, Happ scored, Gomes to second, Bellinger thrown out at home.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Suzuki scored, Bellinger to second, Happ to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Wisdom homered to left center (409 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Nootbaar homered to right center (449 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Nootbaar homered to left center (405 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.4 – 5.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | +4 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 1.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 21–2625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 6–4 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.