Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tauchman doubled to right, Madrigal scored, Tauchman to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Gomes homered to center (411 feet), Morel scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Happ homered to right center (410 feet), Tauchman scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Donovan scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- CHC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.3 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −34 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +36 Elo | CHC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 21–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 7–4 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.