Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting2-4
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 2Goldschmidt singled to left, Motter scored, Nootbaar to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Knizner singled to left, Walker scored, Motter to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1O'Neill singled to center, Nootbaar scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.2 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +5 Elo | CHC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 21–2826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 8–4 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.