Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill homered to right center (374 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Solano singled to center, Polanco scored and Wallner scored, Solano to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Arenado singled to left, Motter scored, Nootbaar thrown out at third.1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Jeffers scored on error, Taylor safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Edman.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 22–2826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.