San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10McMahon hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Doyle scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Grisham homered to right center (422 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Batten singled to center, Cronenworth scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6McMahon homered to right center (412 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Montero doubled to center, Castro scored on fielding error by center fielder Grisham and Toglia scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Cronenworth singled to center, Soto scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -101
- COL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.2 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +33 Elo | SD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 24–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 4–3 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.