San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodgers grounded out to shortstop, McMahon scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 9Kim singled to center, Batten scored, Grisham to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Grisham singled to center, Cronenworth scored, Sánchez to second.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Soto homered to center (438 feet).6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7McMahon homered to right center (382 feet), Profar scored and Tovar scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Soto homered to center (431 feet), Grisham scored and Tatis Jr. scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Tatis Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Campusano scored, Kim out at second, Grisham to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Grisham scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1McMahon singled to center, Profar scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 47%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- SD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.1 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +15 | SD: Pedro Avila (no track record yet) · COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +21 Elo | SD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–30 | Road vs home | 25–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 4–4 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.