Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew SuarezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Montero singled to left, Jones scored, Díaz to second.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Gorman homered to right (429 feet).8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Gorman homered to right center (403 feet).8–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 4Jones singled to center, McMahon scored, Rodgers to second.8–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 37–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 3Goldschmidt reached on infield single to shortstop, Edman scored, Nootbaar to third.7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Profar singled to left, Montero scored, Profar to second.7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Arenado homered to left center (406 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Jones singled to right, McMahon scored, Rodgers to third.6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Rodgers singled to left, Profar scored, McMahon to third.5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2McMahon doubled to right, B. Doyle scored, Profar to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Díaz singled to right, Tovar scored and Jones scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −27 | COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +52 Elo | STL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–36 | Road vs home | 23–3026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.