Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carlson grounded out to shortstop, Burleson scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Burleson homered to right center (400 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Taylor walked, Solano scored, Castro to second, Julien to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 45–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Carlson doubled to left, Edman scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Taylor homered to left (423 feet), Castro scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Jeffers homered to center (410 feet), Julien scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- MIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.6 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −8 | MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +5 Elo | STL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 23–2925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.