San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-5
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sánchez singled to right, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored.11–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 9Cronenworth doubled to center, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to left (444 feet), Grisham scored and Kim scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Sánchez homered to center (440 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Sánchez homered to center (440 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Montero grounded out to first, Tovar scored, Jones to second, McMahon to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Soto homered to right (449 feet), Kim scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Kim homered to left (425 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.2 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +3 | SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +61 Elo | SD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 25–2924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.