Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to right (424 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Edman tripled to right, Carlson scored and Nootbaar scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Contreras doubled to left, Arenado scored and Goldschmidt scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Doyle scored, Profar to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Carlson hit sacrifice fly to right, Contreras scored, O'Neill to second, Gorman to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2O'Neill homered to left center (390 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Fair odds
- STL -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +14 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +43 Elo | STL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–36 | Road vs home | 23–3126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.