St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to right center (404 feet).2–4
- 9Pitch 11 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball 31–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 21–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 8Arozarena singled to center, Franco scored, B. Lowe to second.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8B. Lowe singled to center, Díaz scored, Franco to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 8Díaz singled to center, J. Lowe scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Paredes homered to left (383 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Arenado homered to left center (378 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -131
- STL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 37–192nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.