Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting3-4
- Aaron CivalePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Siri scored, Franco out at second, Díaz to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Baddoo homered to right (429 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Rogers doubled to left, Baddoo scored and Ibañez scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Rogers singled to left, Cabrera scored, Ibañez to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Margot singled to center, H. Ramírez scored, Margot safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Greene.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 22–3127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.